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Journal articles
Is regional air quality model diversity representative of uncertainty for ozone simulation ?
Robert Vautard
1, 2
M. van Loon
3
M. Schaap
4
R. Bergstrom
5
Bertrand Bessagnet
6
J. Brandt
7
P. Builtjes
4
J.H. Christensen
7
C. Cuvelier
8
A. Graff
9
J.E. Jonson
3
M. Krol
10
J. Langner
5
P. Roberts
11
Laurence Rouil
6
R. Stern
12
L. Tarrason
3
P. Thunis
8
E. Vignati
8
L. White
13
Philippe Wind
3
2
ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation
LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] : DRF/LSCE
Philippe Wind 3
Author
1
LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (Bât. 12,
avenue de la Terrasse,
F-91198 GIF-SUR-YVETTE CEDEX
- France)
- UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines : UMR8212 (55 avenue de Paris - 78035 Versailles cedex - France)
- CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives : DRF/LSCE (Centre de Saclay Centre de Grenoble Centre de Cadarache etc - France)
- INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers : UMR8212 (INSU-CNRS 3 rue Michel-Ange, 75794 Paris Cedex 16 - France)
- Université Paris-Saclay (Espace Technologique, Bat. Discovery - RD 128 - 2e ét., 91190 Saint-Aubin - France)
- CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique : UMR8212 (France)
2
ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (
LSCE. CEA Paris-Saclay. Orme des merisiers. 91190 Saint-Aubin. - France)
- LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] : DRF/LSCE (Bât. 12,
avenue de la Terrasse,
F-91198 GIF-SUR-YVETTE CEDEX
- France)
- UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines : UMR8212 (55 avenue de Paris - 78035 Versailles cedex - France)
- CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives : DRF/LSCE (Centre de Saclay Centre de Grenoble Centre de Cadarache etc - France)
- INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers : UMR8212 (INSU-CNRS 3 rue Michel-Ange, 75794 Paris Cedex 16 - France)
- Université Paris-Saclay (Espace Technologique, Bat. Discovery - RD 128 - 2e ét., 91190 Saint-Aubin - France)
- CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique : UMR8212 (France)
3
MSC-W - EMEP Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O.Box 43-Blindern, N-0313 Oslo, Norway - Norway)
- EMEP - European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (Kongens Nytorv 6, 1050 Copenhagen K, Denmark - Denmark)
- EEA - European Environment Agency (Kongens Nytorv 6, 1050 Copenhagen K, Denmark - Denmark)
4
TNO - The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (The Hague - Netherlands)
5
SMHI - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SE-601 76 Norrköping - Sweden)
6
INERIS - Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (Verneuil-en-Halatte ; Nancy ; Aix en Provence - France)
7
National Environment Research Institute (Denmark)
8
IES - JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra - Italy)
- JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( I-21027 Ispra - Italy)
10
IMAU - Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] (Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht - Netherlands)
- Utrecht University [Utrecht] (Heidelberglaan 8, 3584 CS Utrecht - Netherlands)
11
Shell Global / HSE Department (United Kingdom)
12
Institut für Meteorologie [Berlin] (Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10,
12165 Berlin - Germany)
- Freie Universität Berlin (Kaiserswerther Str. 16-18, 14195 Berlin - Germany)
13
Conservation of Clean Air and Water in Europe (United Kingdom)
Abstract : We examine whether seven state-of-the-art European regional air quality models provide daily ensembles of predicted ozone maxima that encompass observations. Using tools borrowed from the evaluation of ensemble weather forecasting, we analyze statistics of simulated ensembles of ozone daily maxima over an entire summer season. Although the model ensemble overestimates ozone, the distribution of simulated concentrations is representative of the uncertainty. The spread of simulations is due to random fluctuations resulting from differences in model formulations and input data, but also to the spread between individual model systematic biases. The ensemble average skill increases as the spread decreases. The skill of the ensemble in giving probabilistic predictions of threshold exceedances is also demonstrated. These results allow for optimism about the ability of this ensemble to simulate the uncertainty of the impact of emission control scenarios.
Keywords :
ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE : POLLUTION : URBAN AND REGIONAL : ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE : TROPOSPHERE : CONSTITUENT TRANSPORT AND CHEMISTRY
ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE : POLLUTION : URBAN AND REGIONAL : ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE : TROPOSPHERE : CONSTITUENT TRANSPORT AND CHEMISTRY.
Document type :
Journal articles
Domain :
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https://hal-ineris.archives-ouvertes.fr/ineris-00963044
Contributor : Gestionnaire Civs <>
Submitted on : Thursday, September 17, 2020 - 2:19:01 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, April 6, 2021 - 3:10:05 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, December 3, 2020 - 9:42:04 AM
Contributor : Gestionnaire Civs <>
Submitted on : Thursday, September 17, 2020 - 2:19:01 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, April 6, 2021 - 3:10:05 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, December 3, 2020 - 9:42:04 AM
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2006GL027610.pdf
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Identifiers
- HAL Id : ineris-00963044, version 1
- DOI : 10.1029/2006GL027610
- INERIS : EN-2006-347
Citation
Robert Vautard, M. van Loon, M. Schaap, R. Bergstrom, Bertrand Bessagnet, et al.. Is regional air quality model diversity representative of uncertainty for ozone simulation ?. Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2006, 33 (24), pp.art n° L24818. ⟨10.1029/2006GL027610⟩. ⟨ineris-00963044⟩
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