Adaptation des outils d'analyse de risques aux futurs complexes de stockage géologique de CO2

Abstract : One option studied to limit the impact of climate change is the capture and storage of CO2 emitted by large industrial facilities. The envisaged technology will contain several installations, that we can gather into four main elements, highly interconnected, each element being devoted to a specific function : capture, transport, injection and geological storage of CO2. Risk analysis of this complex system is based on a limited feedback from experience, since only a few sites in the world have been operated, for not more than 10 years. The methodology for risk analysis of this emerging technology should be based on the learning from experience of geological storage of hydrocarbons, while being adapted to the specificities of the stored fluid (CO2 supercritical, presence of impurities, abandonment of the site under pressure) but also the duration of confinement (from the order of a millennium) which approximates that of radioactive waste storage. Because of interactions between the various links in the chain and due to the low feedback, risk analysis should be as comprehensive as possible and take into account the 4 elements as a whole. As in any risk analysis, one must consider a number of scenarios by linking initiating causes, events and dangerous phenomena (expression of hazards, hence entailing damages for the targets at stake: man and environment). The risk analysis will also have to take into account the different life stages of the system, from exploitation to the longer term. That is why, in addition to the two conventional criteria probability and severity, we suggest to integrate formally the time dimension. The risk matrix becomes a three-dimensional structure in which the representative point of a scenario evolves, along the life stages of the system. In order to integrate uncertainty, this point may get a wider or lesser extent, depending on the associated uncertainty. Therefore, a risk considered acceptable in the shorter term may become unacceptable in the long term, either because its probability of occurrence, or its uncertainty, evolves. It is essential that this uncertainty is described at the design stage so that the risks are controlled during the different life stages of the system
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  • HAL Id : ineris-00963182, version 1
  • INERIS : EN-2009-177

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Philippe Gombert, Régis Farret, Franz Lahaie. Adaptation des outils d'analyse de risques aux futurs complexes de stockage géologique de CO2. Tunnels et Ouvrages Souterrains, 2009, pp.142-154. ⟨ineris-00963182⟩

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