Une méthode d'estimation de la probabilité des accidents majeurs de barrages : la méthode du noeud papillon

Abstract : Article R.214.115 from the French Code de l'environnement - introduced by the 11th dec. 2007 Decree n°2007-1735 - plans safety reports for some hydraulic installations (class A and B dams, class A, B and C dikes). The risk control/level safety of the operator is demonstrated by the safety report. This safety report uses a cross analysis based on severity of consequences and probability of identified major accidents. INERIS assesses the probability of major accident through a methodology based on the analysis of scenarios using bow tie diagrams and frequencies/probabilities expressed as range values. The bow tie diagram describes major accident scenarios from root events to accidents. In this methodology, the risk assessor has to identify prevention and protection safety measures and analyses their performances through the study of some criteria. The bow tie approach deploys a step by step method. This method helps demonstrating the decrease in risk level by implementing new safety measures or upgrading existing once. This approach implies the assessment of root events and probability of failure on demand of safety measure as range frequencies/probabilities. As such, the bow tie diagram approach takes into account root events, prevention and protection safety measures to assess the accident frequencies. However the challenge in assessing unlikely events is not solved using this approach as some specific root events have very low occurrence frequencies.
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  • HAL Id : ineris-00973632, version 1
  • INERIS : EN-2011-372

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Christophe Bolvin, Thibault Balouin, Agnès Vallee, Yann Flauw. Une méthode d'estimation de la probabilité des accidents majeurs de barrages : la méthode du noeud papillon. Colloque technique CFBR / AFEID "Pratique des études de dangers des barrages", Nov 2011, Lyon, France. pp.33-40. ⟨ineris-00973632⟩

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