Limitations of current risk assessment methods to foresee emerging risks towards a new methodology

Abstract : The objective of this work-in-progress is to develop a method enabling emerging risks to be detected. This is certainly a challenge particularly for new industrial fields since in this case very little or no feeback form past accidents would be availlable. There are some examples of total collapse of new industrial concept because of unforeseen critical incidents. It is believed that such situations cannot be treated using traditional risk assessment methods (HAZOP, AMDEC,...) and typical examples are given. The reason is that those method rely heavily on past accidents and are therefore "trapped" in them so that they are largely inductive. In terms of foreseing the future, the shortcomings of inductive methods are explained. The possibility to imagine the future with very little clues is then discussed on the ground of theoretical consideration and a way to do so is proposed (serendipity). Then on the basis of how the experts work and how discoveries are made, a new methodology is outlined.