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Les signaux faibles : dépasser le problèmes de l’impossible prédictibilité

Abstract : As the French philosopher George Canghuilem wrote *Le précurseur est celui dont on ne sait qu*après qu*il venait avant*, namely that we only know for sure in retrospect that someone or something was indicating something radically new. After exploring the implications of this idea, the paper will open ways of solving the issue of treating what has been defined in the literature as 'weak signals'. The purpose is to help to assess risks when considering that some scenarios, although never experienced, could happen. A promising avenue is to explore the socio cognitive practices of the hunter, detective or doctor who use clues or symptoms (which rely heavily on abductive processes). The guiding principle of this paper is to explore the interest of developing alternative approaches to current methods in risk assessment that would be based on similar type of reasoning. Empirical case studies of experts are at the heart of this development.
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Jean Escande, Christophe Proust, Jean-Christophe Le Coze. Les signaux faibles : dépasser le problèmes de l’impossible prédictibilité. Maîtrise des Risques et Sûreté de Fonctionnement, Lambda-Mu 19, Oct 2014, Dijon, France. ⟨ineris-01862476⟩

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