De l’émergence dans les risques émergents

Abstract : Technological and societal evolutions combined with an increased reluctance for risk taking put on the front page the issues of defining and managing emerging risks. A review of existing definitions is however revealing of a great discrepancy in the way emerging risks are understood and tackled in various fields. Novelty, uncertainties, complexity or time for impact are very often considered as specific properties of emerging risks. However, our analysis demonstrates that these properties can be found for familiar risks, making them useless in distinguishing emerging ones. What is more, this lack in rigorous and scientific characterisation of emerging risks makes it difficult for risk managers to identify contexts requiring specific management approaches required by emerging risks. In tackling this issue, we rely on developments in complexity theory. Actually, emergence being one of the key properties of complex systems, we demonstrate in this communication how risks are to be seen as emerging properties resulting from complex interaction involving systems that combine hazards and vulnerabilities. Once the relevance and applicability of complexity related concepts are demonstrated, we discuss the associated implications for emerging risk management.
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Chabane Mazri, Guillaume Delatour, Patrick Laclemence, Didier Calcei. De l’émergence dans les risques émergents. Maîtrise des Risques et Sûreté de Fonctionnement, Lambda-Mu 19, Oct 2014, Dijon, France. ⟨ineris-01862478⟩

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