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Proposition d’une méthodologie pour l’évaluation de la durabilité des stratégies de gestion des risques d’origine naturelle en contexte incertain. Application aux inondations

Abstract : This paper aims to present an exploratory methodology suggested to support decision-making under uncertainty when assessing the sustainability of natural risks management strategies. The methodology focuses mainly on coping with input data-induced uncertainty that could result either from non-precise measurements, variability of models outputs or subjective estimations. It consists of estimating input data uncertainties and propagating them through the assessment process in order to quantify the uncertainty related to the results. Decision-maker can then, with full knowledge of the variability of results, establish a final ranking on which the decisionmaking could rely on. The applicability of the methodology is illustrated through a case study on flood risk management in Dieulouard. The results of this study are not intended to provide the most sustainable strategy to the municipality or to be generalized, their validity being restricted to the validation of the formulated assumptions. They are merely illustrative to show how taking account of uncertainty in the sustainability assessment process can induce variability in results and thus influence decision-making.
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Abla-Mimi Edjossan-Sossou, Olivier Deck, Thierry Verdel, Marwan Al Heib. Proposition d’une méthodologie pour l’évaluation de la durabilité des stratégies de gestion des risques d’origine naturelle en contexte incertain. Application aux inondations. 9. Journées nationales fiabilité des matériaux et des structures (JFMS 2016), Mar 2016, Nancy, France. ⟨ineris-01862945⟩

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