Impact du changement climatique sur la stabilité des versants

Abstract : Natural slopes are part of the French landscape. Several factors influence their stability as their external environment and especially climate parameters. The purpose of this study is to discuss the impact of climate change on the stability of natural slopes. The stability of a slope is characterized by its safety factor which depends mainly on the geotechnical characteristics of the potential sliding surface (friction, cohesion, etc.). These geotechnical characteristics are highly dependent on climatic parameters. In the context of climate change, temperatures and precipitation undergo significant changes disrupting normal climate cycle and thus the stability of slopes. Tools have been developed to assess the direct impact of climate change via climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation, etc.) and indirect impact via the environment context (vegetation, etc.) on the stability of slopes, especially the changes in the frequency and intensity of hazards associated with unstable slopes. Authors mention many numerical and statistical models that provide overall trends in hazards even if the limits of application of these methods remain binding. The analyzes carried out show that in the mountain environment, the intensity of superficial slip hazard and the frequency of rockfall hazard will be increased because of permafrost degradation, glacial retreat and changes in the freeze / thaw, mainly caused by the increase in temperature. The increase in intense and prolonged rainfall saturating the soil and producing high transient pore pressure as the loss of vegetation favored the occurrence of landslides on several natural sites. Finally, a change in precipitation patterns may reactivate old deep landslides rather than activating new.
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Auxane Cherkaoui, Marwan Al Heib. Impact du changement climatique sur la stabilité des versants. 7. Journées Nationales de Géotechnique et de Géologie de l'ingénieur (JNGG 2014) "Observer, modéliser, décider", Jul 2014, Beauvais, France. ⟨ineris-01863825⟩

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