De l’humain dans le bayésien

Abstract : Risk analysis of industrial systems has to include not only technical but also human and organisational factors. EDF (Electricité de France) and INERIS are presently developing a tool for "transverse" risk analysis that considers these three dimensions. We have chosen a Bayesian network as the basic tool for this development. A conceptual framework is proposed, based on the System-Action- Management principles developed by Paté-Cornell and Murphy. Consisting of three layers, it includes the technical level through a ”bow-tie” developed within the European ARAMIS project, human interventions - considered as major contributions to safety barriers - and organisational factors, which are studied at a global level. Simultaneously, a classification of the main sources of uncertainty is suggested, which is adapted to our approach. Specific recommendations are made, related to the global modelling approach of the industrial system and to the practical use of Bayesian networks. The final goal is to assess safety barriers in their environment, by providing probabilistic estimations that are able to help decision makers. We aim to apply this approach to a concrete industrial problematic, including interviews with key players in the plant in question.
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Régis Farret. De l’humain dans le bayésien. Rapport Scientifique INERIS, 2007, 2006-2007, pp.58-59. ⟨ineris-01869090⟩

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