Analyse stochastique de l’enchaînement catastrophique conduisant des fragments issus d’un accident industriel à impacter et à perforer des installations voisines

Abstract : Explosions and accidents in industrial plants may generate a series of projectiles that can impact other facilities and storage tanks in their neighbourhood. The impacted targets may be seriously damaged, thereby giving rise to new explosions, as is the case for tanks with products under high pressure for instance. These successive explosions are known as a domino effect. The present paper deals with a form of industrial risks analysis within a probabilistic framework. This analysis requires various steps: • Probabilistic modelling of the source term (industrial threat such as projectiles, metallic rods, etc.). • Probabilistic modelling of the flight of the fragments and their intersection with the target. • Mechanical behaviour of the impacted target. Pressure vessels have been considered in this study as originators and as targets for simulating the phenomenon. On the basis of a literature review, probabilistic laws have been developed on: • The number of fragments. • The shape of fragments. • Their departure angles and velocities. A flying fragment model is then implemented with these parameters. An algebraic algorithm is applied to determine whether the fragment and the target intersect. If this condition is fulfilled, a mechanical model of the impact is employed to evaluate the effect of the fragment on the target. The results obtained prove that the impact probability of generated fragments on the facilities is not negligible.
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Frédéric Mercier. Analyse stochastique de l’enchaînement catastrophique conduisant des fragments issus d’un accident industriel à impacter et à perforer des installations voisines. Rapport Scientifique INERIS, 2007, 2006-2007, pp.60-63. ⟨ineris-01869091⟩

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