L’incertitude des analyses de risques de mouvements du terrain

Abstract : Ground movements induced by underground cavities or rock slopes may lead to tragic consequences. Risk management has become a strong demand from concerned population and is one of the priorities of public authorities. Risk management is primarily based on the identification and assessment of hazard: predicting the nature of the phenomena likely to occur, anticipating hazards likely to affect people and infrastructures can be exposed, scheduling the implementation of risk scenarios. Based on a thesis completed in INERIS by Maxime Cauvin, in partnership with LAEGO ("Taking into account uncertainties and probability calculations in ground and underground risk studies", December 20, 2007), a systemic analysis of uncertainties in risk analysis of ground movement was carried out. It enabled to establish a typology of uncertainties that fits “ground movements” risk analyses specificity. Moreover, tools were developed in order to fill identified scientific gaps: l a confidence index to characterize the confidence of the expert in a context of missing input data based on their nature and quality; l a methodology for comparing the weight of the uncertainty of input data and models on the result. This enables a more effective way of deciding where extra resources should be allocated (on field investigations, numerical modeling enhancements…).
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Romuald Salmon. L’incertitude des analyses de risques de mouvements du terrain. Rapport Scientifique INERIS, 2010, 2009-2010, pp.92-94. ⟨ineris-01869286⟩

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