Insertion de l’incertitude pour l’analyse des risques du stockage de CO2

Abstract : Tatiana Okhulkova completed her PhD on Dec.15th, 2015, after studying the uncertainties in modeling the migration scenarios for CO2 geological storage. Such a storage is envisaged to fight climate change, by injecting CO2 in deep underground formations after capturing it at industrial plants. An important task was to build a metamodel that reproduces the results of the complete numerical model previously developed by INERIS, with a mathematical function that demands much less calculation time (typically, 100 000 runs in a few minutes). Here, the polynomial chaos expansion theory was used. The importance of the different input variables was studied and compared for two risk scenarios: lateral migration of the CO2 plume and overpressure at the caprock. The PhD thesis also considered the influence of heterogeneities. In order to obtain an uncertainty that is similar to the homogeneous case, a 4.5 times higher standard deviation is needed for heterogeneity as input parameter. This shows that the contribution of heterogeneities to the global uncertainty is weaker. This work necessitated to combine the numerical model with a MATLAB routine that generates a 3D heterogeneous domain.
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Régis Farret. Insertion de l’incertitude pour l’analyse des risques du stockage de CO2. Rapport Scientifique INERIS, 2016, 2015-2016, pp.31-32. ⟨ineris-01869621⟩

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