Une analyse des grandes visions de prospectives internationales sur le devenir de l’environnement

Abstract : Questions regarding our planet future are crucial and foresight studies may play a key role by offering multiple and contrasting scenarios and supporting stakeholders. This may help to understand how societies can (re)define their future evolution. To contribute to the French research planning in the field of environmental sciences, a study of major international foresight visions concerning possible futures of the environment was undertaken in the framework of French National Research Alliance for Environment (AllEnvi), in which Ineris is an active member. Careful analysis of more than 300 scenarios reveals the dominance of governance and economy as driving factors to discriminate scenarios. The study identifies 11 “scenario families” that can themselves be gathered into three major groups: decline, lack of environmental priority and priority to the environment. If the first two groups consider severe degradation to the environment, the third one leads to rather encouraging results, although some orientations prove to be somewhat inefficient (notably if initiated too late). The process and results of the study have been recently published, focusing notably on the "Environment" and "science and technology" components, structuring factors for ALLENVI missions
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Christophe Didier, Audrey Bethinger, Bernard David, Denis Lacroix, Louis Laurent, et al.. Une analyse des grandes visions de prospectives internationales sur le devenir de l’environnement. Rapport Scientifique INERIS, 2018, 2017-2018, pp.26-27. ⟨ineris-02044862⟩

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