Toward an integrated system of risk forecasting for pollen allergy in France
Résumé
Pollen allergy is a growing health problem with an increase of sensitized subjects enhanced by plants response adaptation to climate change and by exposure to high concentrations of air pollutants. Linking air quality forecast and pollen estimate is therefore fundamental to assess and reduce allergy risks related to the cocktail effect. Here we present an integrated modelling strategy designed for operational forecasts. The forecast chain is based on the coupling between the ORCHIDEE land surface model and the multi-scale chemistry-transport model CHIMERE. The coupled model allows a full description of pollen production based on plant phenology and climatic conditions and its emission and transport through the atmosphere. The forecast system contains a calibration and evaluation process using 15 years of ground station data of the French aerobiology network (RNSA). The development of such approach is done within the project PREVIPOL with the objective to strengthen the French air quality system PREV’AIR (www.prevair.org) including pollen forecasts. Finally, the outcomes of the modelling system are combained with clinical database to assess the health risk.