An Imprecise Bayesian Approach to Thermal Runaway Probability

Abstract : In this pioneering work, an assessment of thermal runaway probability based on simplified chemical kinetics has been performed with imprecise Bayesian methods relying on several priors. The physical phenomenon is governed by two chemical kinetic parameters A and Ea. We suppose that their values are considerably uncertain but also that we know the experimental profiles of a chemical species corresponding to their true values, thereby allowing us to compute likelihoods and posteriors corresponding to different levels of information. We are interested in the critical delay time tc beyond which an explosion will certainly occur. The use of several priors allows us to see when the data truly dominate the prior with respect to the probability distribution of tc. It does not appear possible to do so in an orthodox precise Bayesian framework that reduces all forms of uncertainty to a single probability distribution.